Over the past five years or so, home prices have risen by 40.4%, including a 27.7% increase over the past two years.

It is unrealistic to try to maintain increases at about 10% per year as they have in the past next.

First of all, the supply has increased significantly, and the construction schedule that was previously delayed by the epidemic has caught up.

Nearly 40,000 HDB and private housing units will be completed in 2023, and about 100,000 units will be completed between 2023 and 2025.

The supply in the property market is on a clear upward trend.

The inventory of unsold new housing units across the island is gradually growing.

On the demand side, demand has been suppressed due to rising prices, rising interest rates, increasing purchase thresholds, recent cooling measures, and uncertainty about the future.

Reflected in the market, the volume of secondary home transactions has been falling.

With only 1,320 resale transactions in the first quarter of 2023, which averages out to just over 400 units per month, an extremely low number, most agents are not going to do too well this year.

Although supply is increasing and demand is being suppressed, prices are not going to fall.

First of all, the increased supply is the "expensive" new housing supply, and these units entering the market will only continue to drive up the price index. Secondly, demand is being suppressed, not reduced, and will be released again as more properties enter the market, and as mortgage rates gradually fall.

The house price index will still continue to rise this year. It will probably enter a +/- 2% oscillation phase from the end of this year to the beginning of next year.

The red dashed line shows the forecast of future house price trend.

In a fast-rising market, both good and bad houses can be sold equally well and it is easy to make money, but in the future oscillating market, good houses will continue to rise in price while maintaining good liquidity, while bad houses will become a "sticky" burden.

Whether it's for self-occupation or investment, choose more carefully.