According to Huttons Asia's estimates, the total supply of new condominiums will increase to around 10,000 to 12,000 units in 2023, spread across 40 projects. Around half of the units will be located in the RCR, 30% in the mass market outside the Central District (OCR) and 20% in the City Centre or Core Centre Region (CCR).

In comparison, developers have launched 4,592 private off-site residential units in the first 11 months of 2022. Approximately 37% are in the OCR, with 30% each in the RCR and CCR.

Among the new projects to be launched in the RCR next year, Nicholas Mak, head of research and consultancy at ERA Realty, noted that some fairly large projects will be located in the Jalan Tembusu and Katong areas, with 600 to 800 units and an estimated median price of around S$2,200 to S$2,400 per square foot (psf).

Other RCR areas that may see further price increases include District 5 (West Coast, Pasir Panjang and Clementi) and District 16 (Bedok and Upper East Coast).

CBRE's Head of Research for Southeast Asia, Tricia Song, attributes this to upcoming attractive projects in the region, including mixed developments such as MCC Singapore's Sceneca Residence in Tanah Merah; EL Development's Blossom by the Park in Buona Vista The Reserve Residence on Jalan Anak Bukit, jointly developed by Far East Organization and Sino Group.

District 26 (Mandai and Upper Thomson) could also continue to see continued price increases as new projects are expected to be launched in the Lentor area on Government Land Sales (GLS) plots in 2022.

These include Lentor Hills Road Parcel A, to be sold in January 2022, and Lentor Central and Lentor Hills Road Parcel B, to be sold in September 2022.

As for OCR, Mohan Sandra-segeran, senior analyst for research and content creation at One Global Group, expects developers to build on the new benchmark price of S$2,000 per square foot recently launched for projects such as Ang Mo Kio's AMO Residence, Lentor Modern and Sky Eden@Bedok.

Based on market performance, AMO Residence, jointly developed by the China Land Group and its partners Singapore Land Group and Khenglong Group, was launched in July last year at around SS2,100 per sq ft.

Guocoland's Lentor Modern was launched at a median price of S$2,108 per sq ft, while Starling Properties' Sky Eden@Bedok was launched at a median price of S$2,118 per sq ft.

Meanwhile, analysts predict that prices in CCR will remain firm, mainly due to the lack of significant new projects in the area.

ERA Realty's Mak expects only one major project to be launched in the CCR next year: the GLS white site at Marina View, where he sees IOI Properties selling for around S$3,000 per square foot.

A fairly positive market outlook comes from a strong performance in 2022, with OCR leading the way.

In the first three quarters of 2022, the island-wide private non-landed residential price index rose by 8.2%.

Growth was driven by price increases in the OCR and RCR, which rose by 9.8 per cent and 9.4 per cent respectively. prices in the CCR rose by less than half, at 4.2 per cent.

Both the OCR and RCR have historically been among the faster growing regions.

From Q3 2017 to Q3 2022, flat prices in the CCR increased by 14.6%, while prices in the OCR and RCR increased by 44.6% and 43.7% respectively.

Lee Nai Jia, head of property intelligence, data and software solutions at PropertyGuru, said this was also the case in previous upward cycles.

From the second quarter of 2009 to the second quarter of 2013, CCR's flat price index increased by 48.6 per cent. prices in the OCR and RCR soared by 71.2 per cent and 62.8 per cent respectively.

The OCR and RCR tend to feel this impact more easily when demand in the residential market increases relative to supply, as this market segment is typically dominated by people who are upgrading or just starting to build equity incrementally.

On the other hand, CCR's flats cater to the 5% to 10% of affluent Singaporeans.

Another reason for OCR's lead is that it has launched more attractive new flats than CCR and RCR in the past year.

With the launch of Lentor Modern, the first major new project in the district in 13 years, CBRE's Song noted, median prices in District 26, an OCR market covering Mandai and Upper Thomson, achieved the highest growth rate of 134% between Q3 2017 and Q3 2022. Song noted.

The launch of AMO Residence in District 28 (Yio Chu Kang and Salida) and District 20 (Ang Mo Kio, Bishan and Townsend) saw prices rise by 56% and 54% respectively over the same period.

These popular new flats have driven up prices, especially in areas where demand for upgrades has been suppressed and undersupplied, such as established towns like Ang Mo Kio.

Leonard Tay, Head of Research at Knight Frank, highlighted that prices in the OCR were also driven by HDB upgraders, who received significant price increases in the HDB resale market.

This group of buyers has significantly increased OCR prices, from a trough in the first quarter of 2020 to the current peak price of 26.4 per cent in the third quarter of 2022.

This led to a further escalation in the private housing price ladder, he said, with RCR prices rising 32.5 per cent from the trough in the second quarter of 2022 to the current peak in the third quarter of 2022.

Many of these upward price pressures are likely to persist next year.

PropertyGuru's Lee said that despite rising interest rates, HDB upgraders and first-time buyers profiting from intergenerational wealth transfer will continue to drive the market, supporting the new price benchmark.

Unless the HDB resale market slows down or unemployment statistics pick up significantly, prices should remain unchanged.

The resilience of the market is also likely to be due to low speculative activity and ample liquidity to absorb higher interest rates.

In addition, investors, especially ultra-high net worth individuals, are attracted by Singapore's business-friendly environment and high quality of life.