Most analysts expect the local new private housing market to remain active in the coming year, with home prices expected to rise between 2% and 8%, based on more new projects coming to market to meet pent-up demand and more foreign buyers returning.

About 48 new private housing projects will be launched in 2023, with a total of 11,391 units.

In addition, two new Executive Condominiums (EC) will also be launched in Bukit Batok West, resulting in over 12,000 new private residential units.

The Other Central Region (RCR), which represents mid-range condominiums, will have the most units launched, accounting for 45.3% of the total, while the Outside Central Region (OCR), which represents mass private housing, and the Core Central Region (CCR), which represents high-end private housing, will account for 31.&% and 23% respectively.

While more than 40 new projects are scheduled to launch in 2023, a quarter are boutique developments with fewer than 200 units.

Boutique developments do not sell as quickly as larger developments, which have a broader audience due to the variety of condominium amenities that are attractive to families.

The unsold inventory carried over from 2022 to 2023 is very low. Those looking to buy a home in 2023 will have to choose between carryover inventory and new units at the new 2023 base price.

Medium to large projects in the RCR and OCR will be popular with homeowners as the number of unsold units in these areas is decreasing, especially in the OCR.

It is expected that most of these developments should be able to achieve a 50% sell-through rate at launch.

Seven of these developments, with over 500 units, are Lentor Hill Residences, The Continuum (800 units), The Reserve Residences, Marina View Lots, Jalan Tembusu, Pinewood A Lots and The Reserve Residences, Marina View Residences, Jalan Tembusu, Pinewood A and Deming Road Residences, ranging from 598 to 1,040 units.

The new mixed-use project, Sceneca Residence in Tanah Merah, will be launched in January 2023, followed by Blossoms by the Park in One-North and Terra Hill in Pasir Panjang.

Other new private residential projects to be launched in the first quarter of next year include the redevelopment of the former AXA Tower site, the Jalan Tengbuk site, Lentor Hill Residences, the Marina View site, the Newport Residences on On Shun Road (formerly the Fuji Xerox site), The Botany at the Dairy Farm site, and The Botany at the Park. The Botany at Dairy Farm, Doubletree Garden, The Hill @ One North and The Reserve Residences.

The Botany at Dairy Farm, Doubletree, The Hill @ One North and The Reserve Residences.

In the case of King's Court, buyers will be able to get a one-bedroom unit for under $1 million, while less than 5% of local private residential projects are connected to MRT stations like this one.

One-North Technology City (One-North), where Bosun Court is located, has little supply of private homes, with the last project, One-North Eden, already sold out. Similarly, Kent Ridge Hill Residences, which came on the market earlier near Topaz, and Dairy Farm Residences, which was previously launched near Manjing Xuan, are also sold out.

The former Lakeside Apartments project may also be well received by the market.

Jurong East currently has few private residential projects to cope with the rental demand in this area and the buying demand from HDB upgraders. If priced at around $1,700 per square foot, it is expected to be snapped up by buyers.

New projects coming to the market in Lentor will be well received by buyers. This area is rapidly transforming into a new residential area with large shopping malls and amenities.

Analysts believe the new private housing market will remain resilient, and high interest rates are not expected to impact demand for homes.

Many homeowners who have sold their HDB homes in the past year are still looking for replacement homes. Demand for housing from HDB upgraders remains strong, based on good job and income growth.

In addition, high interest rates are unlikely to affect sales of new homes, and point to the resilience of the local property market to high interest rates, in contrast to the tumbling property prices in many cities around the world.

This is likely due to low speculative activity, while a strong real estate market is likely to attract more interest from overseas buyers.

As China reopens its borders, more buyers from China are expected to return to the Singapore property market.

Analysts generally believe that despite the new round of cooling measures introduced by the government in September last year and the high inflation and economic uncertainty that the market is facing today, new private property listings should be well received in the coming year as long as they are priced reasonably.

With 6,981 new homes sold in the first 11 months of 2022, most consultants expect new home sales to end the year in the range of 7,250 to 7,500 units.

The fact that new units sold are at the lower end of the 7,500 to 8,000 units projected to be sold in 2022.

Private home sales are down 42% to 44% year-over-year compared to the 13,027 new homes sold in 2021.

The total number of new launches in 2022 will be 17 private residential projects and three executive condominiums (ECs).

New private residential unit launches (excluding ECs) totaled between 4,500 and 5,000 units, the lowest level since the URA began releasing monthly developer sales data in June 2007.

It is also 53% lower than the 10,496 units to be launched in 25 new projects in 2021.

Despite the small number of new projects launching in 2022, buyers can choose units from the unsold inventory in 2021. Most of the unsold inventory comes from older projects that are more affordable than the newer projects in 2022.

For example, the 1,862-unit Normanton Park is now sold out at a median price of $1,865 per square foot-less than the recent $2,100+ per square foot median prices offered this year by projects outside the Central Region (OCR) such as Amo Residences, Sky Eden@Bedok and Lentor Modern.

It is estimated that by 2022, there will be between 15,500 and 16,500 units of unsold inventory on the market. This is well below the 10-year average of 27,000 unsold units, further adding to the upward pressure on prices.

New home sales are forecast to reach approximately 7,000 to 9,000 units in 2023, despite plans for more new projects.

Market cooling measures and macroeconomic uncertainties are expected to continue to weigh on the market in 2023, nevertheless, confidence in the potential long-term capital appreciation of Singapore real estate, healthy household mobility, low unemployment and home purchase aspirations will continue to support demand for home purchases.

Supply-driven demand from new major project launches, and demand-motivated home purchase decisions.

As homebuyers recalibrate their expectations, new launches will stabilize and grow at a more sustainable rate through 2023. Given rising interest rates and existing cooling measures, some homebuyers may be reluctant to commit to purchasing a property.

In addition, recent massive layoffs in the tech sector and uncertainty about the future of the economy may lead to a slowdown in buyer demand.

Newly introduced prices in the OCR next year are expected to be similar to those in 2022. Meanwhile, the RCR is also expected to reset benchmark prices.