According to analysts, the percentage of HDB upgraders in private property transactions has significantly decreased over the past two quarters. This is mainly attributed to rising private property prices and a decline in HDB resale transaction volumes. HDB upgraders typically sell their HDB flats before purchasing private properties to avoid paying additional buyer's stamp duty.

However, with the increase in HDB resale prices and a decrease in resale volumes, the purchasing power of HDB upgraders has been affected, reducing their demand for private properties.

In addition to the impact of prices and resale volumes, several other factors may contribute to the declining ratio of HDB upgraders in private property transactions.

One such factor is the uncertainty surrounding loan interest rates. With economic instability and fluctuations in global interest rates, potential homebuyers have become more cautious about their expectations for future loan interest rates. High loan interest rates could increase the cost of purchasing a home, causing some HDB upgraders to postpone their home-buying plans temporarily or opt for more affordable alternatives.

Furthermore, economic prospects are also a significant factor influencing the upgrader ratio. If economic growth slows down, the job market weakens, or people's income prospects become uncertain, the demand for home purchases may weaken. This would lead to more homebuyers choosing to wait and see or adjust their home-buying plans, including HDB upgraders. Therefore, given the current economic situation, a decline in the ratio of HDB upgraders in private property transactions is understandable.

It is expected that there will be as many as 12 projects or 3,700 units entering the market in the second half of the year, with some mass-market private properties located outside the central area potentially attracting more HDB upgraders. However, considering the weak economic outlook and persistently high borrowing costs, the upgrader ratio is not expected to rebound significantly.

In this scenario, some homebuyers may prioritize affordability and location. Mass-market private properties outside the central area may become their preferred choice, especially for HDB upgraders seeking larger living spaces.

However, as more private property projects outside the central area are gradually launched, it is expected that more HDB upgraders will enter the market.

In summary, the current sharp decline in the ratio of HDB upgraders in private property transactions is mainly influenced by rising prices, declining resale transaction volumes, and economic factors. While the ratio may see some recovery with the introduction of new projects in the second half of the year, it is likely to be constrained by economic uncertainty and high loan interest rates, resulting in a limited rebound.

Consumers are advised to carefully consider their individual circumstances and market changes when making rational decisions regarding property purchases.