This is also the lowest quarterly total since the second quarter of 2020, when the government imposed a "circuit breaker" at the height of the epidemic.
Residential transactions in the first quarter of 2023 amounted to $1.6 billion, including Meyer Park, Bagnall Court and Holland Tower, with total sales of approximately $583.8 million.
The sale of Holland Tower was the first successful overall residential transaction in the Core Central Region (CCR) since the implementation of the property cooling measures in December 2021. This indicates an "initial return" of interest in prime development sites as the Chinese border reopens.
However, the overall environment remains challenging given the gap in price expectations between sellers and developers.
The success rate of collective sales from 2021 to date is approximately 33%. This compares to an overall sales success rate of 63% between 2017 and 2018.
"Even if owners reach an 80% collective sale agreement, there is no guarantee that the sale will be successful. Ultimately, the key to the collective sale mechanism working in the current cycle is for owners to adopt a reasonable expectation of price in order to stir up developer interest and for developers to realise that owners' replacement costs have increased significantly.
While the commercial market was largely quiet in the first quarter of 2023, the sale of 39 Robinson Road to Yankee Shipbuilding for $399 million last week brought the sector's total sales to $1.9 billion. Another notable transaction was the acquisition of 50% of Nex by Frasers Centrepoint Trust and Frasers Property for 652.5 million.
Meanwhile, the industrial sector saw an increase in investment sales in the first quarter of 2023, up 62.8% sequentially to 681.1 million. This was attributed to the market shifting its focus while awaiting the potential repricing of assets in the commercial sector.
In terms of the market outlook, Knight Frank forecasts that financing has become more challenging for buyers, investors, developers and banks amid macroeconomic uncertainty and global banking volatility, and will remain so until there are clear signs of stabilisation in global economic and financial conditions. Investors are expected to remain cautious as they monitor signs of re-pricing before deciding on their next move.
In response, Knight Frank has lowered its full-year investment sales forecast from $22 to $25 billion to $20 to $22 billion.
