According to official statistics, inbound tourist arrivals fell from about 4.8 million in Q4 2019 to about 150,000 in Q4 2021. However, the reopening of international travel has brought about a strong recovery as inbound tourist arrivals rebound to approximately 2.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Retail rents are a symbolic indicator of the health of the retail market. Rental data shows that island-wide retail rents have fallen from $11.08 per square foot per month in Q2 2020 to $9.01 per square foot in Q1 2022.
However, the domestic-led recovery and easing of epidemic-related measures in Q4 2022 has seen retail rents rebound to around $9.81 per square foot. This is still below the pre-epidemic level, but a positive trend is expected in the coming quarters.
This continued recovery has been achieved without a major boost from mainland Chinese visitors, who until January this year had been caught up in international travel restrictions. However, early indications are that mainland Chinese visitors will make a steady return in 2023.
Orchard Road is not only a luxury shopping belt, but is also surrounded by prime residential areas such as via Jubilee, Newton and Riverdale.
These central communities are close to several schools. Within approximately 2km of the Orchard/Cairnhill area are St Joseph's Institution Junior, Singapore Chinese Girls' School, River Valley Primary School and Catholic Junior College.
The Orchard and Cairnhill areas also have excellent public transport links via several MRT stations. The Orchard Road area is connected to the new Orchard MRT interchange on the North-South and Thomson East Coast lines, as well as the Somerset MRT station on the North-South line. Meanwhile, residents of Cairnhill are close to the city centre and the Newington Underground interchange on the North-South line.
Plans to enhance the overall vitality of the Orchard Road shopping belt in the future are also underway, with the latest masterplan outlining the creation of different areas along the shopping belt. It emphasises the Dongling area as a future arts and mixed-use community, injects more youthful energy into the Somerset area and introduces more family-friendly green spaces in Tomeko.
Some of the older developments in the Orchard Road area have taken advantage of the future regeneration plans for the Orchard Road area, with a number of collective sales completed in recent months. For example, the Tung Ling Shopping Centre on Tung Ling Road was sold in February 2022 for $868 million or $2,769 per square foot.
This was followed in December by the sale of Ming Arcade on Cuscaden Road for $172 million or $3,125 per sq ft. This set a new benchmark for overall commercial sales in the Orchard Road area.
However, both the Cairnhill and Orchard areas are very well established and developed, which limits the supply of new housing. Resident demographics also indicate that Orchard Road is a popular place to live for many expatriates. The area is well located in terms of its central convenience, proximity to amenities and transport links.
In the past five years, only 14 new private residential developments have been launched in prime District 9. Developer sales figures show that approximately 83% of these recently launched units have been sold, leaving only approximately 450 units for sale.
Recent launches include 3 Cuscaden in Cuscaden Walk and Cairnhill 16 in Cairnhill Rise, while a handful of luxury developments include 19 Nassim in Nassim Hill, Park Nova in Tomlinson Road and Cairnhill Road, and Klimt Cairnhill on Cairnhill Road.
Active land sales and a strong new condominium market in the urban fringe and suburbs have gradually narrowed the gap between the price of new private homes in the Core Central Region (CCR) relative to the rest of the Central Region (RCR) and the Outlying Central Region (OCR).
In the first quarter of 2018, the average new launch price was $2,697 and $1,673 per square foot in the CCR and RCR respectively, and $1,305 per square foot in the OCR.
However, based on the latest data, by the first quarter of 2023, the price gap between the average price of CCR ($2,899 per square foot) and the average price of RCR ($2,562 per square foot) has narrowed to approximately 13% and the average price of OCR has increased to $2,111 per square foot.
